Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.136640 7.289503 8.561703 10.064561 11.785928 13.690392 15.951074
2025-02-16 4.080321 5.537694 7.327172 9.661896 12.600730 16.148596 20.723631
2025-02-23 2.826097 4.327235 6.353531 9.232463 13.151983 18.228958 25.216154
2025-03-02 2.009622 3.441269 5.547579 8.774255 13.473622 19.931158 29.306460
2025-03-09 1.547128 2.930185 5.126104 8.715737 14.249224 22.232795 34.337270
2025-03-16 1.192230 2.488690 4.701428 8.543002 14.778324 24.174428 38.974112
2025-03-23 1.031326 2.337136 4.703872 9.019354 16.319072 27.702898 46.173673
2025-03-30 0.853836 2.105528 4.516638 9.132921 17.263653 30.370891 52.250575
2025-04-06 0.702386 1.884137 4.300651 9.150022 18.025352 32.784423 58.079154
2025-04-13 0.577364 1.684151 4.083911 9.122900 18.687511 35.063491 63.825397
2025-04-20 0.536662 1.669529 4.237336 9.814726 20.689609 39.709709 73.713829
2025-04-27 0.472412 1.578494 4.210553 10.140503 22.039909 43.327156 82.102588
2025-05-04 0.416390 1.497484 4.200348 10.517035 23.558388 47.411345 91.659368
2025-05-11 0.344270 1.348944 4.007333 10.482979 24.284705 50.155818 99.119217
2025-05-18 0.271317 1.170485 3.703334 10.157004 24.388699 51.769432 104.694598
2025-05-25 0.208270 0.996772 3.369910 9.706114 24.175706 52.759526 109.196238
2025-06-01 0.171598 0.899419 3.218161 9.658739 24.801972 55.377101 116.806976
2025-06-08 0.137718 0.796303 3.024922 9.475963 25.107131 57.380314 123.380296
2025-06-15 0.127087 0.785229 3.103472 9.998126 27.033987 62.717764 136.526183
2025-06-22 0.108779 0.731084 3.035692 10.122842 28.058434 66.290881 146.465907
2025-06-29 0.091269 0.671154 2.934803 10.141780 28.834729 69.400494 155.664424
2025-07-06 0.075823 0.612407 2.823043 10.112276 29.489339 72.292976 164.579605
2025-07-13 0.073834 0.627660 2.976444 10.867035 32.117003 79.497798 182.392852